April 2020 – Market Commentary & Business Update

Reminder You have until July 7th to contact us if you’d like to contribute into an IRA so you can write it off on your tax return. In addition, we can help you with tax prep! Please call (586) 459-5340 to find out how much we can save you on your tax preparation expenses.

Market Commentary From 1/1/2018-4/2/2020, our Moderate portfolio has outperformed the DOW by about 21% and the Russell 2000 by about 37%. While we continue to outperform, our portfolios experienced losses in March because a mortgage fund and some of our “safe haven” bonds we have been invested in for years, unexpectedly started to lose chunks of money. We have since liquidated the funds, and have moved between 35% to 85% (depending on risk tolerance) of our investments to a money market while we wait for the bottom and/or other opportunities to arise.

In these highly volatile times, it appears that even the most defensive assets were caught in the selloff. When volatility spikes and even safe assets lose value, this is typically a red flag for the market as a whole. We took this as a sign to move to cash equivalents. We currently have an ample amount of dry powder that we are patiently waiting to use to buy back into the market once we believe it has bottomed. Our belief is that this is an opportunity that comes around once every 10-20 years, and since we already avoided huge losses, we are well positioned to turn this into a potentially very profitable situation in the long run.

We believe that any of these three events could potentially create a situation where the bottom is in and a buying opportunity could come to fruition, but a thorough analysis would be required in any case:

1) Evidence social distancing is working via slowing infection growth 2) Approvals on new treatments 3) Timeline on restrictions easing

We’ll continue to provide timely updates and in the case of our in-house managed TD Ameritrade portfolios, monitor your accounts daily.

Business Owner Update The three most important things to consider: \-Self Employed business owners can now receive unemployment: [https://www.fox17online.com/news/coronavirus/gov-whitmer-expands-unemployment-benefits-to-self-employed-independent-contractors-and-more](https://www.fox17online.com/news/coronavirus/gov-whitmer-expands-unemployment-benefits-to-self-employed-independent-contractors-and-more)

\-The Federal Government is now offering emergency SBA loans (the first $10,000 is very easy to acquire) that do not need to be paid back if the money is used on payroll, rent/mortgage for the business, or utilities. Please apply quickly because the pool of money is supposedly limited: [https://covid19relief.sba.gov/#/](https://covid19relief.sba.gov/#/)

\-Unemployment payouts have increased significantly with the new legislation signed into law: [https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/27/how-unemployed-workers-could-get-more-than-100percent-of-their-paycheck.html](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/27/how-unemployed-workers-could-get-more-than-100percent-of-their-paycheck.html)

If you have any questions about taxes, your individual investment portfolio, our 401(k) recommendation service, or anything else in general, please give our office a call at (586) 226-2100. Feel free to forward this commentary to a friend, family member, or co-worker. If they would like to receive this commentary in the future, please send us an e-mail at [info@summitfc.net](mailto:info@summitfc.net) at your earliest convenience. If you have had any changes to your income, job, family, health insurance, risk tolerance, or your overall financial situation, please give us a call so we can discuss it.

Thank you for your confidence and referrals!

Bob, Ken, Jim, and Zach Summit Financial Consulting

Interesting Points

**“The last leg of a bull market (12/2019) always ends in hysteria; the last leg of a bear market always ends in panic (TBD).” _\-Jim Rogers_**

**A clinical research group in London said it would pay each volunteer $4,480 who agreed to be infected with a virus relative of the novel coronavirus in the hope of finding a vaccine. More than 20,000 people signed up. Source: [_\-The Wall Street Journal. March 19, 2020_](https://markzinder.us13.list-manage.com/track/click?u=7f2155abd3fef568fc34efd51&id=fc132d63fd&e=7a34cf03fa)**

**Almost half of the new condos that have come to market in Manhattan since 2015 are currently unsold. One of the reasons: overly ambitious pricing. In 2012, the difference in the average price between a new and a resale unit was 22%. At the end of 2019, the premium was 118%. Source: [_\-The Morning Brew, January 13, 2020_](https://markzinder.us13.list-manage.com/track/click?u=7f2155abd3fef568fc34efd51&id=e11d99aed7&e=7a34cf03fa)**

**The average U.S. household bottomed out at 2.52 people last year, the lowest household size in the history of the country. Germany has the lowest household size in the world at 1.99. Source: [_\-NumlockNews, February 11, 2020_](https://markzinder.us13.list-manage.com/track/click?u=7f2155abd3fef568fc34efd51&id=d1c0a079df&e=7a34cf03fa)**

**“To buy when others are despondently selling and to sell when others are greedily buying requires the greatest fortitude and pays the greatest reward.”_–Sir John Templeton_**

**Coal now stands as the world’s most expensive fossil fuel on an energy-equivalent basis. Australian Newcastle Coal traded at $66.85 per ton Friday, March 20th, which is equivalent to a $27.36 priced barrel of oil. Source: [_\-Bloomberg, March 23, 2020_](https://markzinder.us13.list-manage.com/track/click?u=7f2155abd3fef568fc34efd51&id=92dcad761d&e=7a34cf03fa)**

**Since residents were ordered to shelter in place, demand for electricity in New York and San Francisco has been down between 300 to 600 megawatts- the equivalent of a midsize gas power plant. On a separate note, marijuana sales are up 159% in California, up 100% in Washington state and up 46% in Colorado. Source: [_– E&E News, March 23, 2020_](https://markzinder.us13.list-manage.com/track/click?u=7f2155abd3fef568fc34efd51&id=7c96c4b49b&e=7a34cf03fa)**

Notes & Disclaimer: Stock market indices, like the S&P 500 Index, are unmanaged groups of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general or subsets of the market, and their performance is not reflective of the performance of any specific investment. Investments cannot be made directly into an index. Historical returns data are calculated using data provided by sources deemed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made as to their accuracy, completeness, or correctness. This information is provided “AS IS” without any warranty of any kind. All historical returns data should be considered hypothetical. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This communication is only intended for recipients who reside in states where our agents are licensed to sell these products. Investment advisory services are offered through Summit Financial Consulting, LLC, an SEC registered investment advisor. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. Summit Financial Consulting Investment Advisor Representatives do not render tax, legal, or accounting advice. Insurance products and services are offered through Summit Financial Consulting, LLC. Note: Please update Summit Financial Consulting, LLC, if your investment objectives have changed or if the personal or financial information previously provided has changed. The investment advisory disclosure document that describes Summit Financial Consulting investment advisory services account is provided to you annually. Please consult Summit Financial Consulting for a copy of this document should you need an additional copy. All guarantees are subject to the claims paying ability of the issuing insurance company. Past performance cannot predict future performance. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. The Sherman Group, LLC is not associated with Summit Financial Consulting, LLC in any way, other than a research sharing partnership. Back testing is more heavily scrutinized than any other type of investment analysis because it can be updated to take advantage of past data. The algorithms and trading signals that we receive from the Sherman Group, LLC were created using back testing with the goal of creating a sustainable research process. We have reviewed data from the entire 20 year period which was mostly back tested, and have also personally reviewed the live data for the past 5 years and feel comfortable with it, but we encourage you to meet with us and ask questions so you are fully informed on what we plan to do with your investment assets at TD Ameritrade. It is important to look at fees, taxable repercussions, and trading frequency when looking at a rate of return number. There is no perfect system or research feed, and Sherman Group, LLC has had both longer term and short-term periods where they lost money. Investing involves risk, and these portfolios are no exception.