Stock Market Commentary October 2025

Written by Ken Wink October 11, 2025

In our last update, we mentioned that we have financial planning software that helps us determine how much you should potentially convert from IRA to Roth IRA accounts each year. If you’re interested in converting an IRA to a Roth IRA, now is a good time to get the ball rolling before the end-of-the-year rush. Please let us know if you’d like to discuss this further.

Will It Be A Trick Or Treat in October?

On September 17th, 2025, the Federal Reserve chose to lower the Fed interest rate by 0.25%. They are projecting two more rate cuts in 2025 at this time based upon weaker than expected employment numbers and inflation that is elevated but tenable (Federal Reserve, 2025).

In our opinion, one of the best “old sayings” on Wall Street is: Don’t fight the Fed. This means if the Fed is cutting rates, there is a chance it is beneficial to the stock market and economy.

We predicted last month that there was a chance for a dip in September, and while we did see a coupleof 3-day drops, September was still a positive month for the DOW Jones and S&P 500 (Yahoo Finance, DOW, Yahoo Finance, S&P 500). If the Fed weren’t cutting rates, our base case would most likely be for a drop in October, but it’s especially hard to predict with so much uncertainty.

Tariff policies with three of the largest U.S. trading partners are still being negotiated, including Canada, Mexico, and China (FreightWaves, 2025). How these negotiations shake out could have a large effect on the U.S. Economy, but we may not have answers until November, when some of the tariff delays expire.

Market Outlook

In our opinion, the market has had a good run the past few months, and the market may be due for a healthy correction before ultimately heading higher than it is now by December 31st. If this comes true, then buying low at any point this fall could be a good opportunity, but anything is possible with tariffs, rate cuts, and an interesting jobs market.

Let’s Connect

There is a lot going on in the world, and it’s a great time to touch base. If you haven’t spoken with us in a while and would like to review your numbers, or if there have been any changes in your family, finances, employment, or risk tolerance, please contact us immediately at (586) 226-2100 to schedule a review meeting.

We would love to meet with you over the phone, Zoom, or face-to-face to strategize.

Sincerely,

with contributions from Robert Wink, James Wink, Zachary Bachner, James Baldwin, and Daniel Ladzinski

Sources

Notes & Disclaimer: Investment advisory services are offered through Summit Financial Consulting LLC, an SEC registered investment advisory firm. Summit Financial Consulting Investment Advisory Firm Representatives do not render tax, legal, or accounting advice. Life/Annuity Insurance products and services offered by the individual insurance agent. Health insurance is offered through Summit Health Services, LLC and Property/Casualty (P&C) Insurance is offered through Summit Insurance Services, LLC and our local P&C agency partners. Please update Summit Financial Consulting LLC, if your investment objectives have changed or if the personal or financial information previously provided has changed. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Representatives of Summit Financial Consulting LLC offer tax preparation services through Summit Tax Services. Summit Tax Services is a DBA of Heemer Klein & Company and they are owned and operated independently.

About the Author

Ken Wink

Kenneth “Ken” Wink is the Co-Founder and Chief Compliance Officer of Summit Financial Consulting, LLC. With over 22 years of experience in the financial services industry, he is deeply knowledgeable and passionate about explaining complex financial concepts in understandable terms. Ken’s passion for simplifying complex financial concepts began early. While still in high school, he honed his skills by assisting classmates with their tax returns. This led him to pursue a B.A. in Finance at Michigan State University, graduating with honors. He further bolstered his qualifications by obtaining numerous financial licenses, including Series 6, 7, 63, and 65, along with Life, Health, and Accident licenses. Ken believes that everyone deserves to make informed financial decisions without feeling overwhelmed or intimidated. That’s why he writes articles that break down complex concepts into understandable terms, empowering you to navigate your financial future with confidence.