Stock Market Commentary March 2026

If you had earned income or wages at a job in 2025 (not just Social Security), you have until April 15 to make a contribution into an IRA or Roth IRA. There are restrictions to be aware of, but we'd be happy to walk through it with you. Please give us a call at (586) 226-2100 to discuss it with us.

Important Security Update for Schwab Clients

To help ensure the highest levels of security, we recommend that you call Charles Schwab at 800-515-2157 and create a new "Verbal Password."

This will not affect how we manage your account or handle distributions, but we have been told by Charles Schwab that this will reduce the chance of fraud-related distributions and fraudulent transfers as the new password will be required for most client requested transactions.

Market Outlook: Three Factors for Potential Gains

As of writing this letter, the S&P 500 is roughly flat year to date, and lost 1.88% for the month of February (1).

We are very happy with the performance of our actively managed portfolios, and would encourage you to review your statements to see both year to date and monthly performance.

There are three potential factors that can lead the stock market to further gains, especially between now and mid-May.

• First, the Fed has cut interest rates, which may improve the economy, especially if the 10 Year US Government rate decreases in tandem. Since mortgage rates, credit cards, and many business loans are affected by interest rates, we'll be keeping a close eye on it (2).
• Second, the Republicans have control of the Senate and House of Representatives. The White House has mentioned that they will aim financially to help win the mid-term elections in November (3). In our opinion, the administration may try to pull levers to improve or "window dress" the economy before the election.
• Third, because of the tax legislation passed in 2025, many people are expecting to receive larger than normal tax refunds. People who work overtime, receive tips, deduct new auto loan interest, have high property taxes (new quadrupled SALT deduction limit) and people on Social Security may be pleasantly surprised by their tax refunds (4). All these factors could lead to a positive stock market for the rest of the year.

As we mentioned in our market commentary last month, we believe this year has the potential to have positive stock market performance, but it will likely have plenty of volatility.

We predict the bulk of this volatility to hit this summer before the Mid-Term elections. Absolutely anything is possible, so please continue to read our market commentaries, and know that we are doing everything we can to monitor and adjust when prudent.

Schedule Your Portfolio Review Meeting

There is a lot going on in the world and it's a great time to touch base.

If we haven't spoken in a while and you would like to go over your numbers, or you've had any changes to your family, finances, employer/job, or risk tolerance, please contact us at (586) 226-2100 to schedule a review meeting.

We would love to meet with you over the phone, Zoom, or face to face to strategize.

Sincerely,

Ken Wink

with contributions by Robert Wink, James Wink, Zachary Bachner, CFP® and James Baldwin