Stock Market Commentary July 2026

On Wednesday, June 24th, 73 vessels moved through the Strait of Hormuz which is the highest number since shortly after the Iran war began in late February (1).

The hope is that the recent cease fire holds and energy prices can return to normalcy. On April 7, 2026 Crude Oil prices spiked up $117.63, and they have since dropped down 41% to $69.16 (2).

Oil Prices Drop 41% from April Peak as Strait of Hormuz Traffic Recovers

Because of this drop in prices, Americans are feeling more optimistic about the economy according to the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence survey released Friday, June 26th (3).

In our opinion, lower oil prices and lower inflation, combined with improved Consumer Confidence could be beneficial to the stock market in the long term and short term (4) (5).

Core PCE Inflation Remains Above Federal Reserve Target Despite Improvement Hopes

On June 25th, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation, Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), came in at 3.4%, which is higher than the Fed's target of 2% (6).

This implies the Fed could be looking to increase rates rather than decrease rates. Lower rates can potentially lead to economic growth because the cost of borrowing money typically decreases.

In our opinion, inflation numbers should start to improve if the cease fire and negotiations in Iran continue to progress constructively. We will continue to monitor the situation and make adjustments to our portfolios accordingly. For now, in our opinion the stock market is digesting the news and taking it in stride.

Election Uncertainty May Drive Summer and Fall Market Volatility

Past performance cannot predict future performance, but in our opinion, this summer/fall may have increased volatility. Generally speaking, the stock market does not like uncertainty.

Who will have control of the House and Senate will be a big question mark this fall, and it may cause some uncertainty for investors. We believe this year overall has the potential to have positive stock market performance, but it will likely have plenty of volatility.

In our opinion, anything is possible, so please continue to read our market commentaries, and know that we are doing everything we can to monitor and adjust when prudent.

Please check out our YouTube channel to get more frequent and more thorough updates from us: www.Youtube.com/@SummitfinancialconsultingLLC

Schedule Your Portfolio Review

There is a lot going on in the world and it's a great time to touch base. If we haven't spoken in a while and you would like to go over your numbers, or you've had any changes to your family, finances, employer/job, or risk tolerance, please contact us at (586) 226-2100 to schedule a review meeting.

We would love to meet with you over the phone, Zoom, or face to face to strategize

Sincerely,

Robert L. Wink, Kenneth R. Wink, James D. Wink, Zachary A. Bachner, CFP®, James C. Baldwin, and Daniel Ladzinski

Disclaimer: Investment advisory services are offered through Summit Financial Consulting LLC, an SEC registered investment advisory firm. Summit Financial Consulting Investment Advisory Firm Representatives do not render tax, legal, or accounting advice. Life/Annuity Insurance products and services offered by the individual insurance agent. Health insurance is offered through Summit Health Services, LLC and Property/Casualty (P&C) Insurance is offered through Summit Insurance Services, LLC and our local P&C agency partners. Please update Summit Financial Consulting LLC, if your investment objectives have changed or if the personal or financial information previously provided has changed. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Representatives of Summit Financial Consulting LLC offer tax preparation services through Summit Tax Services. Summit Tax Services is a DBA of Heemer Klein & Company and they are owned and operated independently.