Stock Market Commentary May 2022

Dear Friends and Clients,

Before we provide an update on the market and our TD Ameritrade portfolios, we wanted to quickly mention that if you have money sitting on the sidelines, we have access to many options that may interest you. For example:

• 3.60% Guaranteed for five years or 3.25% for 3 years
• Tax deferral (you already have this with IRA funds)
• No market risk
• Creditor protection
• 10% penalty-free withdrawals annually after year 1
• Full account value at death
• Avoids probate if you name a person(s) as beneficiary
• The above rates are for a $100,000 investment, but additional competitive rates are available for $10,000 or above, so reach out to us to receive all available options; available ages 0-85

Please note we have access to shorter and longer-term options. We also have options with significantly more upside potential that protect your principal, but the rate is not fixed. Please contact our office at (586) 226-2100 if you would like more details and options.

Analysis of Recent Market Results

2022 has started with an extremely difficult environment, but we do believe the worst is most likely behind us. The Russian invasion of Ukraine combined with sky-high inflation, which spurred the Federal Reserve to raise rates, all contributed to nervous stock markets. The tech-heavy Nasdaq has dropped 21% year to date, the Russell 2000 decreased 17%, the bond index AGG lost 10%, and the S&P 500 dropped 13% (Sources: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EIXIC/history?p=%5EIXIC, https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ERUT/history?p=%5ERUT, https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AGG/history?p=AGG, https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history?p=%5EGSPC).

It’s very unusual for stocks and bonds to lose simultaneously, so it’s been an extremely challenging environment. Our Conservative, Moderate, and Aggressive portfolios were negative. Still, all three performed well comparatively because we invested a portion of our portfolios in Gold, sold some bonds high, and traded stocks a bit more active than usual. The Stock Rotation showed its volatility potential with a heavy investment in technology companies. We encourage you to look at your own statements and then give us a call to discuss them if you have questions or want to discuss your returns.

Monitoring Portfolios Daily

As you know, we have many tools in our toolbox, including the ability to bet against the stock market (also called shorting). If we choose to use this tool, the faster the stock market loses money, the more money we will earn. However, if we decide to short the market and the market were to rebound, we would lose money. As of today, our research has not instructed us to short the market because the most likely scenario from here is a bounce higher for the markets. We are hopeful the markets will be higher by the end of this week. Our research is updated daily, so if our research says to short the market, we will act accordingly, similar to the strategy we used in 2020 during the Covid pandemic and in 2008 during the financial crisis. This is why we manage our active portfolios daily.

Perspective for the Future

An old saying on Wall Street is: Sell the Rumor but Buy the News. This means the market sometimes goes down leading up to an event but then rallies after the event come to fruition. For example, the last time the Federal Reserve raised interest rates this year, the market rallied almost 11% in about two weeks after the announcement. The Fed meets on Wednesday, May 4th, so we’re hopeful that we will see another large-scale bounce after the meeting this week.

Anything is possible in the short term, but we believe that by year-end, stocks will rebound for many reasons, including low unemployment, the Coronavirus fueled shutdowns and restrictions being reduced worldwide (currently, there are lockdowns in parts of China), a very robust housing market, and consumer spending from Millennials. They have hit their peak spending years.

We are Here to Help

We would love to meet with you to discuss investments, retirement planning, college planning for kids and grandkids, tax preparation, health insurance, and other financial planning topics. To schedule an appointment, don’t hesitate to contact our office by calling (586) 226-2100!

Please get in touch with us right away if you’ve had any changes to your income, job status, marital status, 401K options, address, or any other financial changes.

Kindest regards,

Bob, Ken, Jim, Zach, and James

​Notes & Disclaimer: Stock market indices, like the S&P 500 Index, are unmanaged groups of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general or subsets of the market, and their performance is not reflective of the performance of any specific investment. Investments cannot be made directly into an index. Historical returns data are calculated using data provided by sources deemed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made as to their accuracy, completeness, or correctness. This information is provided “AS IS” without any warranty of any kind. All historical returns data should be considered hypothetical. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This communication is only intended for recipients who reside in states where our agents are licensed to sell these products. Investment advisory services are offered through Summit Financial Consulting, LLC, an SEC registered investment advisor. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. Summit Financial Consulting Investment Advisor Representatives do not render tax, legal, or accounting advice. Insurance products and services are offered through Summit Financial Consulting, LLC. Note: Please update Summit Financial Consulting, LLC, if your investment objectives have changed or if the personal or financial information previously provided has changed. The investment advisory disclosure document that describes Summit Financial Consulting investment advisory services account is provided to you annually. Please consult Summit Financial Consulting for a copy of this document should you need an additional copy. All guarantees are subject to the claims paying ability of the issuing insurance company. Past performance cannot predict future performance. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. The Sherman Group, LLC is not associated with Summit Financial Consulting, LLC in any way, other than a research sharing partnership. Back testing is more heavily scrutinized than any other type of investment analysis because it can be updated to take advantage of past data. The algorithms and trading signals that we receive from the Sherman Group, LLC were created using back testing with the goal of creating a sustainable research process. We have reviewed data from the entire 20 year period which was mostly back tested, and have also personally reviewed the live data for the past 5 years and feel comfortable with it, but we encourage you to meet with us and ask questions so you are fully informed on what we plan to do with your investment assets at TD Ameritrade. It is important to look at fees, taxable repercussions, and trading frequency when looking at a rate of return number. There is no perfect system or research feed, and Sherman Group, LLC has had both longer term and short-term periods where they lost money. Investing involves risk, and these portfolios are no exception.

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