Stock Market Commentary May 2021
There are many interesting points to consider when analyzing today’s market. The major indexes bounced back in April, but technology continued to underperform. The leaders this month were Energy, Financials, Real Estate, and Communication Services. For the past 20 years, growth companies, especially technology, have led the charge higher for the stock market. Recently, value stocks have been increasing the fastest. We made changes on April 1st to take advantage of this change in leadership and it paid off so far. We encourage you to review your personal investments statements, read our market analysis, and call us with any questions.
Basic market analysis
There will be a point when the stock market needs to take a breather. It may lose 5-10% quickly. However, there are many factors that we believe have the potential to fuel a rebound in the stock market in the next few months, despite short-term volatility.
Factors to consider when analyzing the market
- A $1.9 Trillion stimulus bill was passed and the final wave of stimulus checks has already been sent. We believe that will help jump-start the economy and the stock market as people have discretionary money to spend and invest.
- The annual deadline for IRA contributions was extended to May 17th. This buying is oftentimes beneficial to the overall market.
- The vaccines appear to be reducing deaths. This has the potential to re-open the economy as people begin to eat out, go on vacation, and generally spend more. Younger age groups nationwide now have the opportunity to get vaccinated. This has the potential to reduce both infections and deaths moving forward. There are worrying Covid-19 variants in India and Brazil, but so far the evidence suggests the vaccines are resilient against them.
- Corporate profits are calculated year over year. In the next 3 months, corporations will begin reporting their earnings for 2021 versus the Covid ravaged 2020 numbers. At one point, 88% of S&P 500 companies that reported earnings surprised to the upside and exceeded expectations (Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/15/so-far-in-earnings-season-companies-are-reporting-numbers-way-above-what-wall-street-expected.html).
- Demographics will continue to be a tailwind for the next 15-20 years, the same way the stock market roared up in the 1980s and 1990s. Generation X is firmly in their peak spending years. The Millennial generation (which is larger than the baby boomer generation) is entering peak spending years. When we study this data over hundreds of years, we find that a country that has a large portion of its population in peak spending years is very good for the economy and stock markets. We believe this tailwind will aid the stock market in 2021, and years to come.
What does this mean for the market?
Today’s financial market that points to hope in the coming months. Because of these optimistic points, we hold stock positions in our portfolio. Recent market activity points to the potential for new all-time highs in the stock market.
We are here to help
If after reviewing our market analysis, you’d like to discuss how your portfolio is positioned, please reach out to us right away. If you’ve had any changes to your income, job status, 401K options, or any other financial changes, please contact us right away. We will continue to monitor your investments daily and do everything in our power to protect and grow your accounts.
Sincerely,
Bob, Ken, Jim and Zach
Notes & Disclaimer: Stock market indices, like the S&P 500 Index, are unmanaged groups of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general or subsets of the market, and their performance is not reflective of the performance of any specific investment. Investments cannot be made directly into an index. Historical returns data are calculated using data provided by sources deemed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made as to their accuracy, completeness, or correctness. This information is provided “AS IS” without any warranty of any kind. All historical returns data should be considered hypothetical. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
This communication is only intended for recipients who reside in states where our agents are licensed to sell these products. Investment advisory services are offered through Summit Financial Consulting, LLC, an SEC registered investment advisor. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. Summit Financial Consulting Investment Advisor Representatives do not render tax, legal, or accounting advice. Insurance products and services are offered through Summit Financial Consulting, LLC. Note: Please update Summit Financial Consulting, LLC, if your investment objectives have changed or if the personal or financial information previously provided has changed. The investment advisory disclosure document that describes Summit Financial Consulting investment advisory services account is provided to you annually. Please consult Summit Financial Consulting for a copy of this document should you need an additional copy. All guarantees are subject to the claims paying ability of the issuing insurance company. Past performance cannot predict future performance. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. The Sherman Group, LLC is not associated with Summit Financial Consulting, LLC in any way, other than a research sharing partnership. Back testing is more heavily scrutinized than any other type of investment analysis because it can be updated to take advantage of past data. The algorithms and trading signals that we receive from the Sherman Group, LLC were created using back testing with the goal of creating a sustainable research process. We have reviewed data from the entire 20 year period which was mostly back tested, and have also personally reviewed the live data for the past 5 years and feel comfortable with it, but we encourage you to meet with us and ask questions so you are fully informed on what we plan to do with your investment assets at TD Ameritrade. It is important to look at fees, taxable repercussions, and trading frequency when looking at a rate of return number. There is no perfect system or research feed, and Sherman Group, LLC has had both longer term and short-term periods where they lost money. Investing involves risk, and these portfolios are no exception.
Ken Wink
Kenneth “Ken” Wink is the Co-Founder and Chief Compliance Officer of Summit Financial Consulting, LLC. With over 22 years of experience in the financial services industry, he is deeply knowledgeable and passionate about explaining complex financial concepts in understandable terms. Ken’s passion for simplifying complex financial concepts began early. While still in high school, he honed his skills by assisting classmates with their tax returns. This led him to pursue a B.A. in Finance at Michigan State University, graduating with honors. He further bolstered his qualifications by obtaining numerous financial licenses, including Series 6, 7, 63, and 65, along with Life, Health, and Accident licenses. Ken believes that everyone deserves to make informed financial decisions without feeling overwhelmed or intimidated. That’s why he writes articles that break down complex concepts into understandable terms, empowering you to navigate your financial future with confidence.