Stock Market Commentary September 2026

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq were both positive for the month of August (1, 2). The blended year over year earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 in Q2 of 2026 was over 50% (3). This is the highest earnings growth rate since Q2 of 2021 when the economy was recovering from Covid.

Revenue also increased 15% year over year. Where did all of this growth come from? A large portion of the gains were driven by AI companies, the efficiencies AI can create for businesses, or investments in AI related companies, but some skeptics say an AI bubble is forming (4). GDP has been stable but not breathtaking the past three quarters. Q4 of 2025 was 0.5%, Q1 was 1.6%, and Q2 was 1.5% (4).

If the Iran conflict ends, in our opinion, it's possible that Oil prices will come down, which could reduce inflation, which could help elevate consumer spending.

What Are the Bond Market Warnings We Should Know?

The US Government National Debt hit $40 Trillion this month (5). Interest rates on long dated US Government bonds were increasing faster than the US Treasury liked, so they intervened in the markets and brought interest rates down. This intervention only helped keep rates down for two days (6).

When the government spends more than it takes in, it has to borrow. The interest rate that investors require to loan money to the US Government is getting higher.

This is a concern because these interest rates may affect the US economy, especially when it comes to mortgage rates, business loans, and credit cards since those interest rates correlate to US Government debt interest rates. In addition, a portion of the existing US Government debt was issued at lower interest rates, and when it eventually needs to be refinanced, it will be at higher rates, causing more interest to be paid.

It is our belief that if the US Government does not get more fiscally responsible, it could lead to significant problems down the road.

Why Could Mid-Term Elections Create Market Volatility?

Past performance cannot predict future performance, but in our opinion, this fall may have increased volatility.

Generally speaking, the stock market does not like uncertainty. Who will have control of the House and Senate will be a big question mark this fall, and it may cause some uncertainty for investors.

What's the Outlook for the Remainder of 2026?

We believe what remains of calendar year 2026 has the potential to have positive stock market performance, but it will likely have plenty of volatility.

Anything is possible, so please continue to read our market commentaries, and know that we are doing everything we can to monitor and adjust when prudent.

You can also visit our YouTube channel for more frequent and in-depth market updates.

Schedule Your Portfolio Review

If it has been a while since your last review, or you’ve had changes to your family, finances, employment, financial goals, or risk tolerance, you can contact our team to review how those changes may affect your financial plan.

Learn more about our investment planning and portfolio review process or schedule a review meeting with our team. You can also call us at (586) 226-2100.

Sincerely,

Kenneth R. Wink

with contributions from Robert L. Wink, James D. Wink, Zachary A. Bachner, CFP®, James C. Baldwin, and Daniel Ladzinski

This material is provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment, tax, or legal advice. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Individuals should consult with a qualified financial professional before making financial decisions.