Stock Market Commentary November 2026

For the past 3 months, we’ve mentioned in this market commentary letter that we were expecting volatility leading up to the Mid-Term election (1). October delivered a dose of volatility, as expected. Within our managed portfolios, we reduced our equity exposure in anticipation of this volatility with the goal of keeping losses as small as possible if there was a drop.

For our brand-new clients and clients that recently gave us new money, we kept the money in a money market as a precaution until this week, which helped shield the money from larger losses.

As of 10/30/2026, the tech heavy Nasdaq 100 is down 6.23% for the month and down almost 9% from the all-time high (2). In October at various points, the S&P 500 was around the same price as mid-May of this year, showing the market didn’t make much progress for the past 5 months. The S&P 500 was also negative for the month (3).

We have now re-invested this money that was on the sidelines and invested new clients with the hope that the market will be higher after the election.

Could Stocks Rebound After the Midterm Elections?

We are cautiously optimistic that the next 6-7 months could be good for the stock market. In our opinion, the stock market does not like uncertainty. When we do not know who will control Congress or the Senate, that is a dose of uncertainty.

After the mid-term election, some uncertainty could be removed, which can lead to optimism on Wall Street. In summary, past performance cannot predict future performance, but the stock market normally has a drop leading up to a mid-term election and then bounces after the mid-term election (4).

How Could the Iran War Affect Markets and Interest Rates?

One concern we have is the Iran War. If it escalated significantly after the mid-term election is over, that could cause an additional bump in the road in our opinion. However, if the Iran War swiftly ended, there is a chance in our opinion that oil prices would fall, inflation would fall, and the Fed may not raise rates as quickly in the next year.

We will monitor the situation and make changes that we feel are prudent in our actively managed portfolios.

What Is Summit’s Market Outlook for the Rest of 2026?

We believe what remains of calendar year 2026 has the potential to have positive stock market performance, but it could have plenty of volatility. Anything is possible, so please continue to read our market commentaries, and know that we are doing everything we can to monitor and adjust when prudent.

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Key Takeaways

• Summit reduced equity exposure ahead of anticipated election-related volatility and reports reinvesting funds previously held in money markets.
• The team is cautiously optimistic about the next six to seven months while acknowledging continued market uncertainty and volatility.
• Potential developments involving the Iran War, oil prices, inflation, and Federal Reserve policy remain factors Summit is monitoring.
• Historical post-midterm market performance does not predict future returns.

Would You Like to Review Your Financial Plan?

There is a lot going on in the world and it’s a great time to touch base. If we haven’t spoken in a while and you would like to go over your numbers, or you’ve had any changes to your family, finances, employer/job, or risk tolerance, please contact us at (586) 226-2100 to schedule a review meeting. We would love to meet with you over the phone, Zoom, or face to face to strategize.

Sincerely,

Kenneth R. Wink with contributions from Bob Wink, Jim Wink, Zachary A. Bachner, CFP®, James Baldwin, and Daniel Ladzinski, M.S., CFP®, CRPC®, AWMA®, MPAS™

Notes & Disclaimer: Investment advisory services are offered through Summit Financial Consulting LLC, an SEC registered investment advisory firm. Summit Financial Consulting Investment Advisory Firm Representatives do not render tax, legal, or accounting advice. Life/Annuity Insurance products and services offered by the individual insurance agent. Health insurance is offered through Summit Health Services, LLC and Property/Casualty (P&C) Insurance is offered through Summit Insurance Services, LLC and our local P&C agency partners. Please update Summit Financial Consulting LLC, if your investment objectives have changed or if the personal or financial information previously provided has changed. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Representatives of Summit Financial Consulting LLC offer tax preparation services through Summit Tax Services. Summit Tax Services is a DBA of Heemer Klein & Company and they are owned and operated independently.